US Open Day 13 Preview — America gets its finalist. Shelton gets the pressure. Zverev gets no excuse.

One American man will play for the US Open title. That is guaranteed.

It is also not enough.

American tennis has waited since Andy Roddick in 2003 for another men’s singles champion. Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe have therefore reached a significant semifinal, but reaching Sunday cannot be treated as the end of the drought. It merely gives one of them the opportunity to end it.

Shelton is the better player right now. He owns the bigger serve, the stronger season and the defining win of this tournament. Tiafoe, however, owns the better price, the longer recovery window and a proven ability to make Arthur Ashe Stadium feel like his court.

Earlier, Alexander Zverev faces Karen Khachanov in a semifinal the world No. 1 is expected to win. Considering the draw he has been given and the season he has produced, defeat would not be unfortunate. It would be a failure to convert an exceptional opportunity.

21:00 CEST — Alexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanov

01:00 CEST on Saturday — Frances Tiafoe vs Ben Shelton

Both semifinals are played on Arthur Ashe Stadium.

US Open semifinal schedule and bracket

Beating Carlos Alcaraz in five sets was not just another result for Shelton. It was the most complete demonstration yet of what his game can become when the decisions are as good as the weapons.

Shelton survived four hours and 28 minutes, a fifth-set match tiebreak and a finish at 03:33 in the morning. He produced a 146mph ace and repeatedly found first serves when Alcaraz appeared ready to take control.

“I’m tired. It was a war,” Shelton said afterwards.

The serve was spectacular, but that was not the revelation. Everyone already knew Shelton could serve at a frightening speed. The more important development was that he stopped treating aggression as an obligation to hit harder on every important point.

He changed return positions. He accepted neutral rallies. He attacked when the correct ball arrived instead of manufacturing the moment too early. In the deciding tiebreak, his intensity remained visible without controlling his shot selection.

Andy Roddick highlighted Shelton’s improved mental discipline and clarity. He also described the left-hander’s 145mph body serve as “a superpower he has that no one else on earth has.”

That is the useful part of Roddick’s assessment. Shelton’s physical advantages have never been in dispute. The question has been whether he could organise them properly across five sets against the best players in the world. Against Alcaraz, he finally did.

Roddick’s analysis of Shelton’s win over Alcaraz

There is now a different test. Tennis is full of players who produce a career-defining upset and then arrive emotionally empty for the next round. If Shelton wants the Alcaraz victory to represent genuine progress, he has to follow it by beating an opponent he is supposed to beat.

He should do so.

Tiafoe’s quarterfinal was stirring, chaotic and far less reassuring.

Alex Michelsen served for the match at 5–4 in the third set. Tiafoe was also 3–0 down in the fifth before eventually winning 5–7, 3–6, 7–5, 6–3, 7–6 after four hours and 38 minutes.

“Three out of five is a blessing,” Tiafoe said. He also admitted that he had waited until almost the last possible moment to find his tennis.

The comeback deserves credit. The opening two sets deserve criticism.

Tiafoe cannot donate that much court position, concentration and scoreboard pressure to Shelton. Michelsen allowed him back into the contest. Shelton’s serve may not offer the same opportunity.

AP’s reports from the men’s quarterfinals

The Nothing Major panel reached a fairly sensible conclusion. Sam Querrey gave Shelton the edge because he possesses “a little more firepower” and has shown greater commitment to his patterns. Steve Johnson identified Tiafoe’s first task more bluntly: he cannot begin slowly and must involve the crowd immediately.

Those points belong together. Shelton has the larger weapons, so Tiafoe needs the match to become uncomfortable before Shelton can establish clean control.

Tiafoe should attack the second serve from inside the baseline, vary the return position against the first serve and force Shelton to play additional volleys. He also needs to protect his own second serve much better than he did against Michelsen. Short second serves into Shelton’s forehand would turn this semifinal into target practice.

Nothing Major’s quarterfinal recap and semifinal picks

Tiafoe does possess one genuine tactical advantage: he is comfortable changing the emotional temperature of a match. He can slow the pace, extend games and transform a neutral New York crowd into an active participant.

He has also beaten Shelton at this tournament before. Shelton won their 2023 quarterfinal, while Tiafoe took a bruising five-set rematch in 2024. There should be little mystery between them.

But previous success does not erase the present difference in level. Shelton is serving better, returning with more discipline and playing the important points with fewer unnecessary risks.

The pick: Shelton in four sets.

There is an important distinction between identifying the likely winner and judging the available price.

At 02:55 CEST, Edge Market Wire recorded Tiafoe at 3.60 against a reference fair price of approximately 3.43. That produced a Medium market signal of roughly +1.40 percentage points.

That does not mean Tiafoe is expected to win. It means the market may be slightly too confident that he will lose.

Shelton remains the correct favourite, but prices around three-to-one reduce Tiafoe to a more ordinary underdog than he really is. He has reached three US Open semifinals, owns a victory over Shelton on this court and receives a few additional hours of recovery after Wednesday’s matches.

The honest position is therefore straightforward: Shelton is the likelier winner, while Tiafoe may be the better price. Pretending those statements contradict each other would be poor market analysis.

This will be the first US Open men’s semifinal contested by two Black players.

The winner will become the first Black man since Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at the 2008 Australian Open to reach a major singles final, and the first African American man since MaliVai Washington at Wimbledon in 1996.

That matters. So does the line connecting both players to Gaël Monfils, whose visibility and personality helped make the highest level of men’s tennis feel less remote to a younger Tiafoe.

Donald McRae on Tiafoe, Shelton and the legacy of Monfils

It should not, however, turn the semifinal into a ceremony before it has been played. Shelton and Tiafoe do not need to perform the historical importance of the occasion. Their presence already establishes it.

The match still deserves to be judged as elite sport: one player has earned favouritism, the other has a credible route to beating him, and neither should be protected from a direct assessment because the occasion carries broader meaning.

Zverev’s tournament began badly. He needed five sets in each of his opening two rounds, becoming the first men’s top seed in the Open Era to do so.

Since then, he has won three consecutive matches in straight sets. His quarterfinal against Botic van de Zandschulp ended 6–2, 7–5, 6–1.

The German is now 23–2 at the majors in 2026. He won Roland Garros, reached the Wimbledon final and is the only man to reach all four Grand Slam semifinals this season.

That résumé makes him more than the favourite against Khachanov. With Alcaraz eliminated and no other major champion remaining in the draw, Zverev is the favourite to win the tournament.

AP on Zverev and Khachanov reaching the semifinals

Khachanov should not be dismissed. He has a heavy first serve, a forehand capable of controlling the middle of the court and enough Grand Slam experience to avoid being overwhelmed by the occasion. He also received an abbreviated quarterfinal when Alexander Blockx retired during the third set.

The problem is the matchup.

Zverev returns with greater depth, moves better and owns the stronger backhand. If he consistently makes Khachanov play an additional ball, the Russian will eventually be forced to create too much from his weaker side. Khachanov needs first-strike tennis without becoming impatient. That is a narrow balance to maintain for three winning sets.

Zverev can still create trouble for himself by retreating behind the baseline and allowing Khachanov to dictate with the forehand. He has spent too much of his career responding to pressure by becoming passive.

This is precisely why Friday matters. Zverev has already won his first major and no longer requires flattering language about getting close. He is the top seed, the only Slam champion left and the superior player in this semifinal.

If he loses, the draw will not be responsible.

The pick: Zverev in four sets.

Edge Market Wire recorded Khachanov at 5.00 against a reference fair price close to 4.80, producing another Medium signal.

Again, that is not an upset prediction. Zverev should win.

It is an indication that the market may have moved slightly too far while processing Zverev’s recent straight-set results, Khachanov’s weak form outside the majors and the apparent difference in status between the players.

Khachanov has been poor across much of the regular tour season. He has not been poor at the majors. Those are both relevant facts, and a serious price should account for both.

The two American quarterfinals lasted a combined nine hours and six minutes. Shelton’s match ended at 03:33.

That is clearly excessive. The culprit is not the best-of-five format.

Grand Slam tennis is valuable partly because players must solve physical, tactical and emotional problems over a longer contest. Tiafoe would be out of the tournament under a best-of-three format. Shelton’s win over Alcaraz would have lost the fifth set that made it exceptional.

The US Open controls when matches begin. It controls the separation of sessions, the ceremonies, the turnover time and the amount of entertainment wrapped around the tennis. If the night programme starts late and finishes after three in the morning, the tournament should fix its schedule rather than dilute its sport.

Roddick made essentially the same argument after the quarterfinals. He is right.

Why five-set tennis is not the problem

Friday should produce a Zverev–Shelton final.

Zverev has the cleaner route and the more established five-set game. Shelton has produced the tournament’s best victory and, for the first time, appears to understand that controlling his power is more dangerous than displaying it.

Tiafoe can disrupt that projection. Khachanov can punish a passive Zverev. Neither outcome would be absurd.

But previews become useless when every possibility is given equal weight. Zverev and Shelton are the better players in their respective semifinals, and both should win.

For Shelton, that would prove the Alcaraz result was a beginning rather than an isolated New York night. For Zverev, victory is simply what should now be expected.

America is guaranteed a finalist. On Friday, the real question is whether its favourite is ready to carry the burden that comes with it.

Edge Market Wire is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Market observations describe price and model relationships, not betting advice.