US Open preview: 10 singles matches with real bite

THE DAY AHEAD

The US Open moves through a busy September 3 schedule, with the tournament deep in the second round and the day set to be nudged by New York weather as much as by seedings. The official schedule places men’s and women’s singles across the Thursday sessions, and the US Open warns that session times can change. Forecasters call for a warm, humid day in New York, with morning rain and the chance of afternoon thunderstorms, which is the sort of weather that can add a bit of wobble to timing and court choice. (usopen.org)

The order of play matters here because some of these matches are on a tight clock and some are likely to be fed by long earlier contests. The main thing is simple enough: the expected start times below are estimates from the market, not promises, and the courts can get rearranged if the weather fusses or the preceding match runs long. That is especially true on the outer courts, where the day can turn from brisk to sticky in a hurry. (usopen.org)

TEN MATCHES WORTH A LOOK

EXPECTED START · 17:00 CEST · 11:00 AM EDT

Struff has already made a habit of spoiling bigger names at Flushing Meadows, including Frances Tiafoe and Holger Rune in recent US Opens, and that gives this one a little bite. Cerundolo is the steadier player on paper and finished 2025 ranked well ahead of Struff, but the German’s serve-and-first-ball pattern can make hard courts feel slippery. There is no verified injury issue on either side in the sources checked, so this is mostly about shape and shot tolerance. The price says Struff is the outsider but not a wild one: Jan-Lennard Struff 2.63 at onexbet, fair 2.3174, PP 5.129, confidence HIGH. (usopen.org)

EXPECTED START · 22:30 CEST · 4:30 PM EDT

De Minaur comes in with the stronger overall hard-court body of work, but van de Zandschulp has a strange talent for causing an awkward afternoon, and he arrives after a strong upset of Daniil Medvedev in Montreal. The head-to-head leans heavily to de Minaur, who has already beaten the Dutchman multiple times on ATP tour level. That said, Botic’s level can jump quickly when he is timing the first strike. The market still sees the underdog as live: Botic van de Zandschulp 3.55 at Virgin Bet, fair 3.2794, PP 4.1776, confidence HIGH. (atptour.com)

EXPECTED START · 18:40 CEST · 12:40 PM EDT

Zheng’s profile still carries the note that she underwent elbow surgery in July and has been working back toward full rhythm, while Putintseva has already produced a proper New York nuisance by beating Belinda Bencic in round one. Putintseva’s WTA record page also shows the sort of streaky year that can make her either awkward or excellent, with a recent top-20 win in New York and the old habit of fighting every point as if it matters more than the scoreboard says. This one has a live underdog signal: Yulia Putintseva 3.20 at Pinnacle, fair 3.0714, PP 3.4887, confidence HIGH. (wtatennis.com)

EXPECTED START · 17:00 CEST · 11:00 AM EDT

Darderi is seeded and should have the heavier tour-level record, but Svrcina has come through qualifying and that always brings a nice little residue of match sharpness. The US Open’s qualifier note shows Svrcina arriving through the qualifying path, and the draw has thrown him straight into a seed with less room for settling. There is no fresh injury note in the sources checked, so this is a plain tennis read: seed class versus qualifying momentum. The price points to Svrcina as a live shot: Dalibor Svrcina 2.43 at Marathonbet, fair 2.2575, PP 3.1445, confidence HIGH. (usopen.org)

EXPECTED START · 22:00 CEST · 4:00 PM EDT

Svajda has the home-court familiarity and the US Open site has already flagged him among the SoCal cluster in the draw, while Gea comes in as a young French player with enough upside to make this feel less orderly than the names suggest. The market leans toward Gea, and that fits the idea of a match where the margins may be thin if Svajda’s serving rhythm dips. No verified fitness alarm showed up in the sources checked. Arthur Gea is the price side: 2.05 at onexbet, fair 1.9, PP 3.8511, confidence HIGH. (usopen.org)

EXPECTED START · 22:00 CEST · 4:00 PM EDT

This one is less about reputation and more about whether De Jong can keep the exchange honest against Bergs’ energy. The numbers are close enough to matter, and the market has actually shaded to De Jong, which tells you the pricing team sees a real path for him if rallies stay scrappy. Neither player has a verified injury note in the sources checked, so the interest is all in style and tempo. Jesper De Jong is the signal: 3.25 at Coolbet, fair 3.0571, PP 2.86, confidence HIGH. (usopen.org)

EXPECTED START · 22:00 CEST · 4:00 PM EDT

Bu Yunchaokete has the better known ATP-level profile, but Michael Zheng is a name with a bit of local pull and a chance to turn this into a grind if the day gets sticky. The market makes Bu the favourite, and that makes sense if you trust the tour-level body of work more than the one-off spark. There is no verified injury information in the sources checked. Bu Yunchaokete 2.75 at Coolbet, fair 2.5686, PP 3.2174, confidence HIGH. (usopen.org)

EXPECTED START · 22:00 CEST · 4:00 PM EDT

Bonzi has the cleaner, more established singles record, but Buse comes in off the kind of qualifying path that can leave a player feeling a bit untouchable. The market has Bonzi a shade short, which is often what you see when a favourite’s underlying level is okay but not iron-clad. There is no fresh injury note to weigh in here. Benjamin Bonzi 2.25 at Tipico DE, fair 2.2139, PP 2.616, confidence HIGH. (usopen.org)

EXPECTED START · 17:00 CEST · 11:00 AM EDT

Michelsen has already knocked out Brandon Nakashima in straight sets and the US Open site described it as a methodical upset, which is pretty much the kind of line you want before backing a young American at home. Merida, meanwhile, arrives after beating Andrey Rublev from a set down, so this is not a plain formality; it is a nice sharp matchup between two players who have already burned a bit of paper in New York. The market likes Merida enough to make him interesting: Daniel Merida Aguilar 2.70 at Coolbet, fair 2.5159, PP 4.0329, confidence HIGH. (usopen.org)

EXPECTED START · 17:00 CEST · 11:00 AM EDT

Tsitsipas has been talking and playing like a man trying to find the old rhythm again, with ATP reporting that he has rediscovered some conviction and recently returned to a final after a long gap. Lehecka is the sort of opponent who can make that search uncomfortable, because he does not give away much when the first serve is landing. The market is offering Tsitsipas as the value-ish outsider, and that is the kind of set-up where form and confidence need checking rather than guessing. Stefanos Tsitsipas 3.00 at Boylesports, fair 2.7, PP 3.7037, confidence HIGH. (atptour.com)

THE PRICE DESK

The cleanest market reads today are the ones where the underdog has a sensible route, not the ones where the number just looks wacky. Struff at 2.63 is the sort of shot you can at least argue through his serve and his US Open habit of annoying better-ranked men. Putintseva at 3.20 is another live one because Zheng is still carrying the elbow-surgery comeback story and Putintseva already has a New York win in the bag this week. Michelsen’s match is more delicate: the price is pointing at Merida, but Michelsen’s recent upset over Nakashima means the American is not just window dressing. Van de Zandschulp, Svrcina, and Bublik-style names would all be in the mix here too, but the ten above are the ones with the best blend of story and signal. (wtatennis.com)

WEATHER AND THE SMALL PRINT

New York is forecast to be warm, humid and a bit messy, with morning rain and thunderstorm risk later in the day. That can make the court air heavier and can also push matches around, which matters when you are trying to time outer-court starts from the market. The US Open itself says the schedule is subject to change, so treat every expected start as a useful guide rather than a fixed promise. (usopen.org)